Oscar Predix

Going to take a break from the usual blogging (which I have neglected to the hilt lately), and chime in with my own oscar nomination predictions. The announcement is going to happen in a few hours time so I figured I'll weigh in with my own thoughts on the 4 major categories (I never get excited about best director for some reason). I am listing them in order of likelihood. Enjoy.

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Walk The Line
The Constant Gardener

Alternates: Capote; Munich; A History Of Violence

No Chance In Hell but would love to see nominated: Jarhead

Anyone who has followed all the pre-cursors and hype will have to know that Brokeback, Crash and GNGL are locks in this category. Which leaves spots #4 and #5 up for grabs. A lot of people think that Capote will do it, but they will honour Philip Seymour Hoffman for lead actor (he is the Jamie Foxx of this year) and I get the feeling that if they are going to go with a bio-pic it will be Walk The Line which has grossed over $100Mil in the box office, carries with it two likely contenders in the lead acting categories, and has won three Golden Globes. The fifth spot to me is a toss-up, and as much as they love Speilberg they don't always nominate his pics for 'important' films (remember Amistad ?). So its down to two small films that were released back in October and generated early buzz, I think the Constant Gardener's nominations at the Golden Globes and BAFTA nominations give it the edge over AHOV. Its a romance, a mystery and stars Ralph Fiennes, how could they not pick it.


Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Pheonix - Walk The Line
Ralph Fiennes - The Constant Gardener
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow

Alternates - Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man), David Straitharn (Good Night and Good Luck)

No Chance But Would Like to See - Viggo Mortenson (A History of Violence)

This is a category that has 3 locks in it who have been the frontrunners for a long time. PSH has come out in front due to his Golden Globe and SAG wins, but Ledger is in the Best Pic frontrunner and Pheonix also won a Golden Globe, so those three will get nominated no problem. The other two spots are tricky, most people seem to be predicting Crowe and Straitharn but I get the feeling that Fiennes will creep in if there is big love for The Constant Gardener and Howard will get it because it is his 'break-out' year and he has been everywhere promoting himself.

Best Actress

Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Judi Dench - Mrs Henderson Presents
Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of A Geisha
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice

Alternates - Charlize Theron (North Country); Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger); Naomi Watts (King Kong)

No Chance But Would Like To See : Jodie Foster (Flightplan)

A tough category to predict and there is always a surprise out of left-field nomination that creeps in here. I can't bring myself to predict Theron based solely on the adverts for the film, haven't they already honoured her for de-glaming once ? Again the top 3 seem to be locks although a part of me gets the feeling that Dench might get the snub this year, not sure why. A lot of people are saying that Zhang's performance isn't her best, but sometimes they like to nominate the person regardless of performance (probably why Theron WILL get nominated). Knightley will slip in here, she's 20, she's British, very pretty and she surprised most people with that film. Again anything could happen in this category, especially with the 4th and 5th slots.

Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
George Clooney - Syriana
Jake Gyllenhal - Brokeback Mountain
Matt Dillon - Crash
Don Cheadle - Crash

Alternates - William Hurt (A History Of Violence); Terrence Howard (Crash)

No Chance But Would Like to See: Peter Sarsgaard (Jarhead or Flightplan)

I am going for a surprise nomination for Cheadle if there is a big love-in for Crash, all three (Dillon, Howard and Cheadle) could make it in this category. Gyllenhal has been losing momentum but he'll slip in, Giamatti and Clooney are locks at this point.


Supporting Actress

Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Frances McDormand - North Country

Alternates - Maria Bello (A History of Violence); Thandie Newton (Crash); Shirley McClaine (In Her Shoes)

No Chance But Woud Like to See: Sandra Bullock (Crash); Anne Hathaway (Brokeback Mountain)

A really hard one to predict, with only Weisz and Williams as shoe-ins. Amy Adams is the critical darling and although the film is too small her SAG nomination helps and I think she'll make it. Keener has the effect of appearing with the likely best actor winner and a potential best picture nominee, and she has a great year with both Capote and The 40 Year Old Virgin on her resume. I would love to see Bello make it in but there is confusion over whether its a supporting or lead role and that usually doesn't help, so I am going with McDormand who Oscar loves and by all accounts is the best thing in the film.